Michael Dell has announced that a major PC refresh cycle is on the horizon, though it’s coming later than initially expected. The CEO of Dell Technologies confirmed that businesses and consumers will be upgrading their aging computers, but the timeline has shifted to 2025. Dell and other major PC manufacturers including HP and Lenovo are preparing for what they believe will be a significant wave of computer upgrades starting next year.
The delayed refresh cycle hasn’t dampened Dell’s optimism about the future PC market. Speaking at the Citi 2024 Global TMT conference, Michael Dell noted that while the refresh has “been delayed for sure,” it remains inevitable. Many computers currently in use are reaching the end of their useful life, and the adoption of AI-enabled PCs will eventually drive this upgrade cycle.
Meanwhile, Dell Technologies has pivoted to focus on its server segment to maintain revenue while waiting for the PC refresh to begin. This strategy has helped the company stay resilient during the slower-than-expected transition period. Todd Johnson, president of Dell Platinum partner Avalon, shares the company’s outlook, predicting that “2025 is going to be a big year for client refreshes.”
Why Businesses Are Poised for a Major PC Upgrade
Michael Dell’s prediction of an impending PC refresh cycle isn’t just wishful thinking—it’s grounded in industry realities that are becoming impossible to ignore. Across enterprises and small businesses alike, the average age of deployed PCs is creeping well beyond its prime. Many organizations are still relying on systems purchased during the work-from-home surge of 2020 and 2021. Now, those machines are approaching obsolescence, both in terms of hardware capability and software support.
What’s Driving the Upcoming PC Refresh?
Several factors are converging to create what Michael Dell believes will be a significant wave of upgrades. Here’s what’s fueling the demand:
1. End of Windows 10 Support
- Date: October 14, 2025
- Impact: Enterprises running Windows 10 will no longer receive security updates or technical support.
- Implication: Companies will be forced to migrate to Windows 11, which has steeper hardware requirements, such as TPM 2.0 and newer CPUs.
2. AI-Powered PCs Are Entering the Mainstream
- AI Workloads: Modern PCs are being designed to handle AI-driven applications locally, reducing dependence on the cloud.
- NPUs (Neural Processing Units): These specialized chips improve performance for AI tasks like real-time language translation, video enhancements, and cybersecurity.
3. Security and Compliance
- Outdated Hardware Risks: Older machines lack modern security features such as hardware-based isolation, advanced encryption, and zero-trust compliance.
- Regulations: Increasing data protection regulations require more robust systems.
4. Productivity and Employee Satisfaction
- Performance Bottlenecks: Legacy systems slow down workflows, which translates to lower productivity.
- Hybrid Work Demands: Teams working remotely need reliable, secure, and fast machines with strong collaboration features.
The Aging Installed Base: By the Numbers
Businesses are holding on to PCs longer, but that strategy is wearing thin. The numbers tell a story of necessity rather than preference.
| Year Purchased | Percentage of Enterprise PCs | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 42% | Aging (approaching end of life) |
| 2019 or earlier | 28% | Obsolete (not meeting Windows 11 requirements) |
| 2021+ | 30% | Modern fleet |
Source: IDC Enterprise Hardware Survey 2024
Over 70% of enterprise PCs in use today are either aging or already obsolete by modern software standards.
AI-Ready PCs: What Makes Them Different?
AI PCs represent the next evolution of the personal computer. While many think AI simply runs in the cloud, the newest wave of AI-capable devices is designed to process AI tasks locally. Here’s how they’re different from traditional machines:
| Feature | Traditional PCs | AI-Ready PCs |
|---|---|---|
| Neural Processing Unit (NPU) | No | Yes |
| AI Acceleration | Minimal (CPU/GPU only) | Built-in NPU for real-time AI tasks |
| Battery Efficiency | Standard | Improved efficiency using NPUs for tasks like noise suppression |
| Security Features | Basic TPM | Advanced AI-driven security like adaptive threat detection |
| Examples | Standard business laptops | Dell Latitude 7455, Lenovo ThinkPad X1 Carbon AI Edition |
Windows 11 Hardware Requirements: A Bottleneck for Legacy Systems
Microsoft has made it clear—Windows 11 won’t run on just any PC. Organizations that want to remain secure and compliant need to upgrade their machines to meet the following minimum requirements:
| Requirement | Windows 10 | Windows 11 |
|---|---|---|
| CPU | 1GHz, 2-core | 1GHz, 2-core, 64-bit with specific models |
| TPM | Optional | TPM 2.0 required |
| RAM | 2GB | 4GB minimum |
| Storage | 32GB | 64GB minimum |
| Secure Boot | Optional | Required |
This hardware gap between Windows 10 and Windows 11 is one of the biggest drivers behind the looming refresh cycle.
How Dell Is Positioned to Lead the Refresh
Dell Technologies is already gearing up to meet this demand. In recent earnings calls, Michael Dell and Dell COO Jeff Clarke emphasized their readiness to supply enterprises with AI-powered and Windows 11-ready machines.
Dell’s Upcoming and Current Offerings:
- Dell Latitude AI PCs: Designed for hybrid work with AI-enhanced audio, video, and security features.
- Dell XPS 13 and 15: Sleek, high-performance devices already optimized for AI workloads.
- Dell OptiPlex Desktops: Enterprise-level desktops ready for Windows 11 migration.
What IT Decision-Makers Should Be Doing Now
With this wave of change on the horizon, IT teams need to start planning. Here’s a checklist to stay ahead of the curve:
- Audit Your Current Fleet
- Identify PCs that don’t meet Windows 11 requirements.
- Budget for the Refresh
- Plan capital expenditures or consider leasing models.
- Consider AI-Capable Hardware
- Future-proof your purchases by opting for AI-ready systems.
- Plan for Deployment
- Schedule phased rollouts to minimize downtime.
- Train Employees
- Ensure teams are ready to leverage new AI tools and features.
The message is clear: the PC refresh cycle Michael Dell is forecasting isn’t a matter of if, but when. And for many businesses, that “when” is already on the doorstep.
Key Takeaways
- A major PC refresh cycle is expected to begin in 2025, with Dell, HP, and Lenovo preparing for widespread computer upgrades.
- Michael Dell confirms the refresh has been delayed but remains confident it will happen as aging PCs and AI capabilities drive demand.
- Dell Technologies is currently relying on its server business while positioning itself for the upcoming PC refresh wave.
Michael Dell’s Forecast on PC Market Dynamics
Michael Dell, CEO of Dell Technologies, predicts a significant PC refresh cycle starting in 2025. This comes after a period of sluggish growth in the PC market and points to promising revenue opportunities for major manufacturers.
Analysis of the PC Industry Trends
The PC market appears poised for a comeback according to industry leaders. Several major manufacturers including Dell, HP, and Lenovo are betting on strong market growth in 2025. Dell Technologies has been particularly vocal about this upcoming cycle, with Michael Dell announcing a “blizzard of new” AI-related products.
While Dell shows optimism, competitors have varying outlooks. HP and Dell forecast more conservative growth in the “mid-single digits” compared to Lenovo’s bullish stance. This expected growth stems largely from delayed Windows 11 PC refresh demand that has built up over recent quarters.
The industry shift focuses heavily on notebooks and “PCs as a service” models. These subscription-based approaches help businesses manage their technology needs more efficiently while providing steady revenue for manufacturers.
Expected Impact on Dell’s Sales and Revenue
Dell Technologies aims for 3-4% annual revenue growth and 8% earnings per share growth in the coming cycle. The company plans to return over 80% of adjusted free cash flow to shareholders, signaling confidence in its financial performance during this period.
The PC refresh cycle is expected to boost Dell’s client solutions group, which includes desktops, laptops, and workstations. Dell’s strategy of focusing on notebooks and service-based models has positioned it well to capitalize on the anticipated market growth.
AI integration appears central to Dell’s refresh strategy. Michael Dell has highlighted upcoming AI announcements that will likely feature in new PC offerings, differentiating Dell from competitors like HP, Apple, and Acer.
For investors and industry watchers, this forecasted upturn represents a potential buying opportunity. Some analysts have already begun adjusting price targets for Dell stock in anticipation of the 2025 market growth.
Strategic Moves and Technological Advancements
Dell Technologies is positioning itself at the forefront of the tech industry through targeted investments in AI, server infrastructure, and PC innovation. The company’s preparation for the anticipated refresh cycle includes several key initiatives across multiple product lines.
Innovation in Dell’s PC and Server Offerings
Dell’s approach to the upcoming PC refresh cycle focuses on enhancing both performance and user experience. The company has reimagined its product lineup, particularly the popular XPS 13, with features designed to support AI workloads at the edge. These new PCs include neural processing units (NPUs) that can handle AI tasks without relying heavily on cloud resources.
On the server side, Dell has strengthened its position with improved data center solutions. The PowerEdge server line now offers better processing capabilities for enterprise workloads. These servers include specialized hardware for AI model training and inference, addressing growing customer demands.
Dell’s hardware improvements extend to storage solutions as well. New systems offer faster data access rates, essential for companies working with large datasets for AI operations.
Investment in Artificial Intelligence and Networking
Dell has completely refreshed its AI Factory, a platform that helps businesses deploy AI solutions more efficiently. This system includes pre-configured hardware, software, and services designed to reduce implementation time.
The company’s networking division has developed new infrastructure to support increased data traffic from AI applications. These solutions help prevent bottlenecks in data centers running multiple AI workloads simultaneously.
Dell’s service offerings have expanded to include AI implementation consulting. These services help customers navigate the complex landscape of artificial intelligence deployment, from hardware selection to software integration.
Research and development spending has increased significantly as Dell creates technologies that can handle the computational demands of large language models and other AI tools.
Collaborations with Intel and Microsoft
Dell has strengthened its partnership with Intel to incorporate the latest processors in both PC and server products. This collaboration ensures Dell’s hardware can fully leverage Intel’s AI acceleration capabilities built into newer chips.
With Microsoft, Dell has developed optimized systems for Windows Copilot and other AI features in the Windows operating system. These systems are designed to deliver better performance for users running AI-enhanced applications.
The partnerships extend to software optimization, with Dell working closely with both companies to ensure operating systems and applications run efficiently on Dell hardware. This approach helps businesses maximize their technology investments.
Joint research initiatives focus on future AI implementations, positioning Dell to quickly adapt to emerging technologies and customer needs.
Frequently Asked Questions
PC refresh cycles significantly impact the technology landscape, affecting everything from manufacturer revenue to business productivity and consumer technology adoption. These cycles drive innovation and create market opportunities.
How does a PC refresh cycle impact the computer hardware industry?
A PC refresh cycle creates substantial revenue opportunities for hardware manufacturers. Companies like Dell, HP, and Lenovo typically see increased sales during these periods.
The ripple effect extends to component makers such as Intel, AMD, and Nvidia, who benefit from increased demand for processors, graphics cards, and memory.
Retailers and distributors also experience higher sales volumes and potential margin improvements when businesses and consumers replace aging systems.
What are the key drivers behind the initiation of a new PC refresh cycle?
Hardware obsolescence is a primary driver, as older systems struggle to run newer software efficiently. Most business PCs have a 3-5 year lifecycle before performance issues become problematic.
New operating system requirements often trigger upgrades. For example, Windows 11’s hardware requirements forced many businesses to consider new equipment purchases.
Emerging technologies like AI-enabled computing create compelling reasons to upgrade. Michael Dell specifically noted that AI capabilities in newer PCs will eventually drive adoption despite current delays.
In what ways has Dell Technologies positioned itself to take advantage of the PC refresh cycle?
Dell has developed a robust lineup of AI-enabled PCs with advanced processing capabilities. These systems are designed to handle next-generation applications and workloads.
The company has strengthened its enterprise relationships, positioning itself as a trusted advisor for business technology transformations rather than just a hardware vendor.
Dell has also balanced its business by growing its server segment, which helps offset slower PC sales during the transition period. This strategy provides financial stability while waiting for the refresh cycle to accelerate.
What historical precedents exist for major PC refresh cycles in the technology sector?
The Windows XP to Windows 7 transition (2009-2012) created one of the largest corporate refresh cycles. Businesses that had delayed upgrades during the economic downturn made significant investments.
The shift from traditional hard drives to SSDs (2013-2015) sparked another major upgrade wave. Performance improvements were dramatic enough to justify new system purchases.
The remote work transition during 2020 created an unexpected refresh cycle. Organizations rapidly deployed new laptops and mobile devices to support work-from-home policies.
What trends are currently influencing the acceleration of PC refresh cycles?
Artificial intelligence integration is becoming a key differentiator in new systems. PCs with dedicated AI processing capabilities offer performance advantages for emerging applications.
Security concerns are driving upgrades as older systems lack modern hardware-level protections. Businesses face increasing pressure to address vulnerabilities in aging equipment.
Workforce expectations around device performance have changed. Employees accustomed to responsive personal devices are less tolerant of sluggish work systems.
How do PC refresh cycles affect consumer and enterprise technology adoption?
Enterprise customers typically approach refresh cycles methodically, often planning deployments over 12-18 months to manage costs and minimize disruption.
Refresh cycles create opportunities for technology standardization. Organizations can eliminate problematic hardware variations by deploying consistent systems.
Consumers tend to upgrade more sporadically than businesses, often influenced by holiday sales or major life events rather than coordinated refresh strategies.
